Mobile Phone Penetration 84 Percent, Wireless Revenue $155B by Year's End

Some 84 percent of the US population will have mobile phones by the end of 2007, with that proportion surpassing 100 percent in 2013, SNL Kagan estimates.

Figures include consumer, business and double-mobile-phone users.

SNL Kagan also forecasts US cell phone subscriptions to grow at a rate of about 3 percent per year over the next decade - versus total population growth of 1 percent - despite decreasing net additions as 100 percent penetration is approached.

The projections anticipate increased data use, including text, web and video, which could be accelerated by new-player business models - e.g., multimedia services that get partially subsidized by advertising, similar to the approaches being tested by Google, YouTube and others.

SNL Kagan also projects total US wireless service revenue to increase at a 5 percent CAGR from 2007 to 2017, from $155 billion this year to $253.6 billion in 2017.